October 14, 2025 /SemiMedia/ — SEMI’s latest industry analysis forecasts that 2025 will mark the first time global capital spending on 300 mm wafer fabrication tools exceeds the $100 billion threshold, reaching around $107 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase.

Looking ahead to 2026 through 2028, SEMI expects sustained growth: $116 billion in 2026 (up 9 %), $120 billion in 2027 (up 4 %), and $138 billion in 2028 (up 15 %).

SEMI President and CEO Ajit Manocha comments, “Driven by insatiable demand from AI workloads and renewed emphasis on regional supply chain sovereignty, the semiconductor industry is entering a new paradigm. Strategic investments and cross-border partnerships are accelerating deployment of next-generation manufacturing infrastructure.”

In node breakdowns, the logic/microelectronics segment is projected to command approximately $175 billion in tool investment from 2026 to 2028, making it the predominant driver. As capacity for sub-2 nm nodes is brought online, foundries become key capital allocators. Volume production of 1.4 nm is anticipated around 2028–2029. Meanwhile, AI performance escalation will spur demand in edge domains such as automotive electronics, IoT, and robotics. Beyond bleeding-edge nodes, increased demand at mature nodes is also expected to propel equipment purchases.

In memory, cumulative tool expenditure over three years is projected at $136 billion, placing it second. DRAM-related tooling is forecasted to surpass $79 billion, and 3D NAND investments amount to $56 billion. The analog segment is expected to see over $41 billion in investment during this period, while power and compound semiconductor sectors (including power conversion, RF, and power devices) are slated for $27 billion.

Geographically, mainland China is expected to remain the heavyweight, investing about $94 billion from 2026 to 2028 in 300 mm fab tools. South Korea is projected to invest $86 billion, undergirding global generative AI demand. Taiwan is on track for $75 billion, with a strategic focus on 2 nm and below nodes to maintain its leading foundry position. The Americas are forecasted to invest $60 billion over the same period, ranking fourth globally.

Overall, the 300 mm equipment market is entering a strong growth phase. Demand from advanced logic and memory nodes, combined with regional technology policy and supply chain investment, will shape the competitive landscape of future semiconductor manufacturing.