February 6, 2025 /SemiMedia/ — Industry sources indicate that Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is set to steadily expand its CoWoS advanced packaging capacity over the next five years. The foundry is expected to boost monthly production to between 75,000 and 80,000 wafers by the end of 2025, with a further increase to 150,000 wafers per month anticipated in 2028-2029.

According to insiders, TSMC’s expansion will follow a phased approach. By the end of 2024, CoWoS facilities are projected to achieve a monthly capacity of over 35,000 wafers. This output will comprise roughly 20,000 wafers for CoWoS-S, 10,000 to 15,000 wafers for CoWoS-L, while production for CoWoS-R remains comparatively limited. In 2025, the company expects the split to shift with CoWoS-S exceeding 20,000 wafers, CoWoS-L reaching around 45,000 wafers, and CoWoS-R growing to 10,000 wafers monthly.

The recent surge of Chinese startup DeepSeek, which offers low-cost AI solutions, has raised questions about its potential impact on TSMC’s order volumes, particularly amid concerns over high-priced, high-tech hardware from rivals like Nvidia. However, industry observers believe the real effect of DeepSeek’s market entry will take two to three months to materialize. Both TSMC and Nvidia have not disclosed any adjustments to their orders or capacity plans.

Despite challenges posed by trade tensions and AI chip restrictions, forecasts for demand in Nvidia’s AI GPUs and TSMC’s CoWoS advanced packaging remain robust. Analysts expect that TSMC’s capacity expansion roadmap will proceed as planned, reinforcing its leadership in the high-end packaging segment.

With measured capacity increases and a clear product strategy, TSMC is well positioned to maintain a competitive edge in the advanced packaging arena, even as the semiconductor landscape faces ongoing market uncertainties.