According to analysis by senior investment consultants, the bottom of the memory chip market has passed, and the industry is expected to rebound at the end of the second quarter of 2020. By then, the global memory chip market will once again be in short supply.
According to the observation of DRAM prices in recent years, the consultant said that the peak of price increases in the past few years was at the end of the second quarter of 2018, and began to fall in the third quarter of last year. Currently, prices are still falling, but compared with the past two quarters, the current price decline has slowed down significantly.
Between June and July, DRAM prices showed a price increase of about 40%, and in August there was another slight decline, mainly because DRAM prices are still in a downward trend, and short-term price increases are driven by the electronics industry peak season. It is expected that after the peak season, the price may continue to fall, but since the price is quite close to the bottom, the price decline will be significantly reduced.
Overall, DRAM prices will pick up at the end of the second quarter of next year. By then, with the demand for 5G, IOT and automotive electronics rising sharply, DRAM will once again be in short supply.