October 19, 2026 / SemiMedia / — A $2 trillion global semiconductor market is achievable as AI demand continues to expand, according to SEMI President and CEO Ajit Manocha.

The industry took roughly 50 years to reach $500 billion, but only about five years to double to $1 trillion, Manocha said. He sees scope for further rapid growth, although reaching $3 trillion by 2035 will depend on market conditions. If that milestone slips, he believes it could still arrive between 2037 and 2040, provided geopolitical tensions or a major economic crisis do not further fragment the global industry.

SEMI expects global semiconductor equipment sales to approach $166 billion in 2026 and reach $230 billion in 2028. As many as 102 fabs could begin operating by 2029, including 82 already under construction. Around 50 additional fabs may be needed after 2029.

Manocha said confirmed orders and clear investment returns would encourage equipment makers and the wider supply chain to expand together. Temporary bottlenecks remain possible, but the industry's experience through previous cycles should help it manage supply pressures.