Q4 DRAM pricing outlook

November 27, 2025 /SemiMedia/ — Market research firm TrendForce said the DRAM industry is entering a price-driven phase in the fourth quarter as suppliers’ inventories return to healthy levels and bit-shipment growth slows. The shift comes after a strong third quarter in which both volume and pricing improved across the sector.

TrendForce expects contract prices for conventional DRAM to rise 45% to 50% this quarter. Including high-bandwidth memory (HBM), overall contract prices could climb as much as 50% to 55%. While third-quarter revenue reached US$41.4 billion on the back of expanding HBM shipments and firmer DRAM pricing, the report notes that the most significant price momentum will emerge in the fourth quarter.

Cloud service providers, driven by intensive AI computing and data-center expansion, are becoming the main drivers of the price uptrend as they seek longer-term supply commitments. Consumer, PC and industrial-control applications may face tighter supply or be forced to follow price increases if they delay contract adjustments.

Supplier strategy and market shift

Major suppliers—including SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron—strengthened their positions in the third quarter through product-mix adjustments and pricing strategies, collectively approaching a 90% market share. Micron’s revenue rose more than 50% quarter-on-quarter, pushing its share to 25.7%, reflecting aggressive expansion as AI and HBM demand accelerates. Taiwanese manufacturers such as Nanya Tech, Winbond and PSMC benefited from mature-node and specialty-product demand, absorbing market gaps and gaining early momentum during the inventory rebound.

TrendForce said the DRAM market has rapidly transitioned from the heavy destocking and price cuts of previous years to a supply-tight, supplier-driven environment. For downstream buyers, the fourth quarter marks the start of rising cost pressure and will be a key period in securing memory supplies and margins for next year’s AI-driven workloads.