According to reports, it is estimated that the supply of DRAM will continue to exceed demand this year and next year, which will make the price of DRAM from the third quarter of this year to the third quarter of next year drop by 15%, 15%, 10%, and 10% respectively, and it is not expected to stop falling until the third quarter of next year.
The report pointed out that the growth rate of DRAM demand next year was revised down from 18% to 11%, mainly because the weakening of terminal retail demand led to negative DRAM purchases by downstream manufacturers. Among module manufacturers and server manufacturers, DRAM inventory was 8 weeks at the end of June, and changed to 10 weeks and 12 weeks at the end of September. On the other hand, DRAM inventories of PC OEMs and mobile phone manufacturers maintained high levels for 12 weeks and 8 weeks.
In addition, the expected growth rate of DRAM supply next year is revised down from 16% to 15%, and the growth of wafer production is revised down from 115,000 pieces per month to 74,000 pieces per month, mainly because DRAM manufacturers slowed down process upgrades due to weak demand.
Under the imbalance between production and sales, Samsung has been actively reducing prices since August to stimulate demand. However, the inventory level of the three major DRAM manufacturers still accumulated from 9 weeks at the end of June to 13 weeks at the end of September, resulting in the accumulation of inventory in the fourth quarter of this year.
