Morgan Stanley: MLCC prices may fall by 30% in the first quarter
On January 22, Morgan Stanley's latest report pointed out that as market demand continues to decrease, the price of MLCC products will fall by 20~30% in the first quarter of this year, and the price of 0402 size MLCCs may fall by 40~50%.
After visiting several distributors, Morgan Stanley believes that in the first half of 2019, the market will continue to digest MLCC inventory, and the average unit price of low-end MLCC products may continue to decline, but the rate of decline will be slower. At present, the price of certain types of MLCC is still higher than that of 2017. Even though it has dropped by more than 70% from the peak of July 2018, there is still room for price decline because supply is greater than demand.
In Japan's MLCC market, Morgan Stanley expects smartphone demand and technology innovation to decline slightly before 5G mass commercialization, and MLCC shipment growth will slow down significantly.
In South Korea, SEMCO (Samsung) suffered high inventory adjustments in its high-end MLCC products in December 2018, mainly from Chinese smartphone customers, which accounted for more than 20% of its MLCC revenue.
In Taiwan, due to weak demand, general-purpose MLCC inventories are still high, and most Taiwanese MLCC manufacturers have slowed down this year's expansion plan, which also reflects the weak market demand.