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Home › MarketWatch › AI demand drives memory supply crunch, TrendForce lifts early 2026 price outlook
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AI demand drives memory supply crunch, TrendForce lifts early 2026 price outlook

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February 3, 2026

February 3, 2026 /SemiMedia/ — Global memory chip prices are set to rise sharply in early 2026 as demand from artificial intelligence and data center applications continues to strain supply, market research firm TrendForce said.

The firm said tighter supply-demand conditions have strengthened pricing power for memory suppliers, prompting it to lift its forecast for the first quarter of 2026. TrendForce now expects contract prices for conventional DRAM to rise by about 90% to 95% from 2025 levels, up from an earlier estimate of 55% to 60%.

PC DRAM prices are expected to see the steepest increase. TrendForce said stronger-than-expected PC shipments in the fourth quarter of 2025 have kept PC DRAM in short supply, with first-quarter contract prices forecast to jump by more than 100%, a record high.

In the server DRAM market, cloud service providers in North America and China, along with server OEMs, were still negotiating long-term supply agreements with memory makers as of January. Competition for limited capacity is expected to push server DRAM prices up by around 90% in the first quarter, also marking a historical peak.

Mobile DRAM prices are likely to follow the broader market trend. TrendForce expects first-quarter contract prices for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X to rise by around 90% as handset makers raise bids to secure supply. Pricing talks with U.S. smartphone customers were largely concluded late last year, while negotiations with Chinese brands have progressed more slowly due to recent contract renewals and the Lunar New Year holiday.

In the NAND Flash market, first-quarter orders have exceeded suppliers’ production capacity, but manufacturers are prioritizing DRAM output due to stronger profit prospects. As a result, NAND supply growth remains limited, with short-term output gains relying mainly on process improvements.

Rising demand for high-performance storage driven by inference AI workloads is also lifting enterprise SSD prices. TrendForce expects enterprise SSD prices to increase by about 53% to 58% in the first quarter of 2026, the largest quarterly rise on record.

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