November 4, 2025 /SemiMedia/ — DDR5 supply constraints are escalating as memory makers delay fourth-quarter contract pricing, pushing downstream buyers towards the spot market. Samsung halted DDR5 contract quotes in October, and rival suppliers SK Hynix and Micron have adopted similar strategies. Industry participants now expect contract quotes to resume only in mid-November, if at all.

Spot pricing has surged as buyers scramble for supply. DDR5 16Gb spot prices have doubled from late September levels. DDR4 has also jumped sharply, with 16Gb parts up roughly 90% this past month. Meanwhile, flash wafer prices have risen, with 512Gb TLC now around US$5, and 1Tb TLC/QLC reaching US$6.5–7.2. Foundries are shifting more capacity to DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), reducing availability for mainstream DDR products.

Rising capital expenditures from the world’s largest cloud service providers are amplifying the squeeze. Amazon has raised its capex to nearly US$125 billion this year, and Google, Meta and Microsoft are also lining up higher spending into 2026. Market data suggests DRAM contract pricing in Q4 is already up roughly 1.7 times from a year ago, supporting the view that DRAM and NAND supply will remain structurally tight.

Executives in the memory supply chain say the shortage is not only cyclical but structural. Wallace C. Kou, CEO of Silicon Motion, recently said DRAM and NAND flash will remain in shortage throughout 2026 as HBM continues to absorb wafer capacity. He added that price spikes will eventually curb demand, but the timing of that inflection remains uncertain.