According to the latest report from IC Insights, after bottoming out in the first quarter of 2023, expectations for a rebound in the IC market in 2Q23 are rising.
The IC Insights report noted that over the past 60 years,the IC industry is well known for its cyclical behavior. Looking back to the mid1970s, there hasn’t been a period where the IC market declined for more than three quarters in a row. Following a 9% drop in the 3Q22 IC market, and assuming the 4Q22 and 1Q23 IC markets register a decline, the 3Q22-1Q23 timeperiod would mark the seventh three-quarter IC market drop on record (Figure 1).
As shown, there hasn’t been a three-quarter decline in the IC market since 4Q18-2Q19. Moreover, the three-quarter decline in 2001 was the steepest on record, with three double-digit declines, which led to a 33% annual decline—the most severe annual IC market drop in history.
IC Insights pointed out that given that the IC industry has never experienced four consecutive quarters of IC market decline, expectations are high for the IC market to resume growth from 2Q23. While the U.S. and China trade war is an unpredictable “wildcard” for near-term IC market growth scenarios, 2Q23 is currently expected to display modest 3% increase. However, even with a rebound in IC sales beginning in 2Q23, the total IC market is forecast to drop by 6% next year.
For more information on the report, please visit https://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/After-1Q23-Bottom-Expectations-Increase-For-A-2Q23-IC-Market-Rebound/.
