At the recent memory chip industry summit MTS2020 hosted by DRAMeXchange, Ken Kuo, deputy general manager of DRAMeXchange, said that due to the conservative capital expenditures of major memory manufacturers, the global memory chip industry ’s output will grow at an annual rate of 12% next year, which is the lowest growth rate in the past decade.
Looking at Samsung, Hynix or Micron's plans for next year, Ken said that manufacturers will take profit as the most important purpose next year, so capital expenditures will be reduced next year. With the reduction in output, prices will likely rebound.
From the application side, the application categories of memory chip products are mainly divided into 5 categories: standard memory, server, mobile memory, graphics, and niche memory. The largest share currently is mobile memory products, accounting for about 39.7%; the proportion of servers is only 32.6%, and next year will be about 34.9%. The proportion of server applications is gradually increasing every year, and its growth is the highest among these applications. In addition, memory chips for graphics are currently in good demand and are expected to be in good condition next year as well. In niche memory, the annual growth rate is about 7% to 8%.
Ken said that from the survey, in the next 3 to 5 years, the share of servers may exceed mobile memory, and it will become the highest proportion of all memory products.
Driven by demand, coupled with the impact of low output growth next year, DRAMeXchange estimates that next year's memory prices will have the opportunity to stop falling and rebound in the first half of the year.
Ken said that next year's memory chip prices are expected to rebound in the second quarter and continue to the end of next year. On the whole, prices will slowly increase next year, with an overall increase of at least 20%, but the specific situation depends on market demand.