According to the latest report released by TrendForce, As DRAM suppliers are generally carrying a healthy level of inventory, most of their clients in the end-product markets are carrying a higher level of DRAM inventory than what is considered healthy, meaning these clients will be less willing to procure additional DRAM going forward. TrendForce therefore forecasts that the average DRAM price in the fourth quarter will begin to fall, and some products with excessive inventory will fall by more than 5%, and the overall average DRAM price will fall by 3 ~8%.

TrendForce pointed out that with the increase in the Covid-19 vaccination rate, demand for laptops is no longer as strong as during the epidemic, especially in the Chromebook field. It is expected that the overall laptop production volume in the fourth quarter will decline. Therefore, the supply of standard memory for computers will no longer be tight.

DRAM prices projected to decline by 3-8% QoQ in 4Q21-SemiMedia

In terms of service storage, TrendForce said that as end users have purchased server DRAM substantially in the first two quarters, the current inventory levels of cloud service providers in North America and China have reached more than 8 weeks, and some companies have more than 10 weeks. Due to high inventories, server DRAM declined 0~5% for the first time this year.

In terms of consumer DRAM, TrendForce believes that DDR4 will face a larger decline, which is expected to fall by 5-10%. Although the supply of DDR3 is gradually decreasing, the price has also fallen across the board. Among them, 4Gb is expected to drop by 3 to 8% in the fourth quarter.