IC Insights recently said that the average price of DRAM has soared 165% in the past two years, but according to past DRAM price trends, after DRAM has surged, prices will soon begin to fall.
IC Insights pointed out that the DRAM industry's capital expenditure increased by 81% last year and increased by 40% this year. Under this situation, it is expected that the supply will be higher than the demand in the future, and the supply and demand is an important indicator of the price trend.
It is worth noting that although the growth rate of capital expenditure is high, a considerable part of the capital expenditure is consumed in the upgrade of the 20-nanometer process, which means that the same capital investment will generates less production capacity than before. The expected overcapacity risk this time may not be as serious as it used to be.
In addition, Innotron Memory, JHICC and other two memory factories from China are expected to join the global supply this year, which will also bring an unknown variable to the memory market.